서베이앤헬스폴리시리서치센터

Kim, S. W., and Lepkowski, J. M. (2002). “The changes and trends in telephone household coverage,” in Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association, 1851-1856, New York City, New York: Joint Statistical Meetings. 

Abstract

Telephone sampling has improved coverage properties since the 1980s due to a rapid spread of fixed line service across the world. The development of more efficient sampling techniques for telephone surveys has encouraged the development of commercial sampling systems that provide good coverage of telephone households. Recently telecommunications technology has developed a mobile sector, growing rapidly since the early 1990s. There have been, simultaneously, growing concerns that fixed line household service would decline as persons move to mobile only status. Mobile  telephone service in many countries has recently experienced “cross-over”, where mobile service subscriptions overtake fixed lines, and, in some countries, an increase in “mobile only” telephone households. In this paper, we examine coverage rates in several countries and their relationship to mobile service subscriptions. For countries that provide household coverage rates on a somewhat regular basis, we fit hierarchical linear models to analyze the relationship between coverage and mobile service to examine trends in coverage.

Keyword: Mobile service, Fixed line service, Hierachical Linear Models

(논문 내용)

2002년 New York City에서 열린 미국통계학회(Joint Statistical Meetings)에 발표된 본 논문의 내용은 다음 논문과 밀접한 관계가 있다. 주요 내용으로는, 해를 거듭할수록 핸드폰 사용자가 크게 증가함에 따라 일반전화(집전화)를 보유한 가구의 비율(fixed telephone household coverage; FTHC)이 감소하고 있으며, 그 감소의 정도가 국가 간에 차이가 있는데, 그 차이가 발생하는 원인(요소)들을 hierarchical multivariate linear model (HMLM)을 이용하여 보여주는 것이다.

Kim, S. W., and Lepkowski, J. M. (2002). “Telephone household non-coverage and mobile telephones,” in Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association, 1845-1850.

FTHC에 대한 국가 간 차이가 발생하는 주요한 원인들 중 하나는 국가 간 모바일 시스템의 차이(single mobile system vs. multiple mobile system)이다.  논문의 Figure 5에 잘 나타난 것 처럼, 'GSM'이라는 single mobile system을 채택한 유럽연합은 GSM 외에 CDMA, DMA, AMPS, IDEN 등의 multiple mobile system을 채택한 국가들(미국, 캐나다, 호주)에 비해 FTHC 감소가 더 두드러진다.   

핵심적인 내용을 보기 위해서 발표 슬라이드를 참조할 수 있다.